Across the world migrating to apps has made it harder for non-locals to visit. I wonder if Apple is thinking about this ..
Category Archives: share
Jared Bernstein: “we depend less on trade than most other countries. That means, as Trump has correctly argued, we can hurt them more than they can hurt us.”
https://contrarian.substack.com/p/a-trade-warfor-what
This essay assumes the US doesn’t invade Greenland or turn Canada into an American colony. Bernstein further assumes rational responses to the trade wars. Given those assumptions, what lies ahead for Americans is merely recession, growing misery, and general decline for decades to come.
Solid reference.
Musk takes down social security services: “downsize its phone operations … forced an influx of traffic to the SSA website. The strain of that traffic has reportedly caused the website to crash multiple times.”
Twitter goes down and the world is briefly a better place. SSA goes down and vulnerable people suffer.
(This morning the site went down as we tried to document our disabled son’s income.)
“We aren’t the first society to come unglued. We almost certainly will not be the last.”
https://www.liberalcurrents.com/youre-not-crazy-america-has-gone-mad/
1. If sociology and anthropology had not died in the 1980s we might have been monitoring our society and culture and anticipated collapse.
2. Without falsifiability an industrial civilization cannot endure.
Drezner explains why NYT journalists lost reality: trapped in their own narrative
https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/there-are-no-adults-in-the-room
“Who is the president listening to on policy? What are the possible faultlines…”
There is a standard policy outline they follow. They have been writing the same template for decades. Now it doesn’t work but they can’t stop.
Historian of reconstruction on the MAGA age: Crushing reconstruction.
“even the robber barons were not that bad; at least they endowed some libraries and foundations and fellowships and had some idea of wanting to pretend to some sort of cultural capital. But here, at this moment, we are in a regime with these billionaires who seem unaccountable to anyone”
Musk is in too deep. He can’t leave MAGA.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/musk-stepping-back-dont-bet-on-it
Well argued by Josh. He is on the tiger now.
Musk is too wealthy to face justice — under our old standards. But there is a narrow chance American democracy survives return to the justice standards of years gone by. Then he faces prison time.
Fallows deep dive into American tariff history: “No one who has looked into Smoot-Hawley has said, “Let’s do that again!” Until today.”
https://fallows.substack.com/p/launching-the-economic-version-of
Readable and solid.
On the bright side the Trump’s Tariffs may save the world.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/04/trump-tariffs-political-capital/682274/
Americans may now learn authoritarian rule is not all as much fun as it sounds. (Maybe.)
Which would give human civilization better survival odds.
EU trade war option: “partly cutting off the [US] banks from projects worth roughly 2 trillion euros ($2.2 trillion) each year”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/02/business/dealbook/trump-tariffs-europe-response.html
“anti-coercion instrument”.
I genuinely appreciated Joe Biden and said so often.
Hands Off: De-escalation Training · MoveOn
https://www.mobilize.us/moveon/event/766084/
What we do now.
The Trump Reich: “Canadians would have to choose between resistance, knowing full well that they would probably lose in the end, or surrender without a fight to save lives … their destination is not statehood and American citizenship, but some kind of
https://gwynnedyer.com/2025/three-hours-in-greenland/
Cancel your vacation plans, you will be spending that money and time on your protest marches.
Adding paperwork requirement hassle drops healthcare enrollment by a third.
https://www.aeaweb.org/research/ordeals-selection-health-insurance
Nice study. Huge effect for relatively minor hassle. America “funds” many “benefits” by adding hassles. Checks the social safety net box.
Tsai reviews xAI “acquisition” of X/Twitter.
https://mjtsai.com/blog/2025/04/01/xai-acquires-x-twitter/
Hiding the body.
“before he was through, Booker’s speech had been liked on TikTok 400 million times”
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/april-1-2025
Best coverage of the speech.
“I’m not saying that the Trump team’s thinking is unsound. I don’t see any thinking at all.”
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/stop-looking-for-methods-in-the-madness
Somewhere there are dreams and visions. In the heads of Musk and Miller certainly. But they do not agree even before they are thrown into the chaotic blender of Trump’s dying rotted brain.
“offered reassignment to the Indian Health Service, which is the sort of thing that Elon Musk’s crew of young sociopaths probably regard as a funny joke”
Sociopaths or brats? Bad parenting or just bad luck?
“If a senior Trump appointee told me it was raining, I would first stick my head out the window for confirmation, and second make sure that they weren’t just pissing on my shoes.”
macOS 18.4 white wallpaper bug
https://leancrew.com/all-this/2025/04/a-macos-18-4-walpaper-bug/
I’ll wait for 18.4.1. If they broke this there are likely bigger problems.
“A democracy is a government of collective action by the people. Let this be a reminder, it is time to do more… before it is no more.”
If Trump can invade Greenland he will.
Ethno-religious movement hits Bangladesh, women targeted.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/world/asia/bangladesh-islam.html
Bangladesh has done far better than was expected in the 1980s. Now everything is at risk.
K finally gets there: “the world needs fewer manufacturing workers than it used to, just as it no longer needs a lot of farmers”
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-note-on-trade-deficits-and-manufacturing
The slow death of rural America is one of several contributors to the collapse of the GOP and the rise of MAGA. Globalization and IT are two others.
“I also very much doubt several key swing states critical to the 2028 election would place him on their ballots in obvious defiance of the constitution.”
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/dont-make-an-idol-out-of-donald-trumps-will
Forget about Trump III.
Ramadan: “going from the longest to the shortest Ramadan fasting periods (1.4 hours per day) leads to a difference in growth rates on the order of one percentage point of growth”
https://musgrave.substack.com/p/the-social-science-of-ramadan
But happiness increases.
James Bruce, traveler: “he travelled by land from Tunis to Tripoli, and at Ptolemaida took passage for Candia; but was shipwrecked near Benghazi and had to swim ashore”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bruce
18th century Scot, best known for first euro to trace Nile to Ethiopia. Fun wikipedia bio.
“presently returning to the desert to recover his journals and his baggage, which had been abandoned in consequence of the death of all his camels”
France fines Apple $162M for App Tracking Transparency: “follows a complaint by a group of trade associations representing advertisers who are no longer able to access user data to serve personalized ads”
If true this is Trump-class stupid.
“several analysts remain focused less on recession calls than on trying to make sense of why so many people are feeling down about their economic lives.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/business/economy/wealth-cash-inequality.html
The article notes much wealth growth is not liquid – including home equity. So it overstates prosperity for many. Decreases in cash balances a hint.
I am happy at least some experts are asking the important “why”.
Semantic Scholar – keep an eye on it.
https://www.semanticscholar.org/
This site shows up a lot in Perplexity reasoning chains. It’s funded by the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) and was launched in 2015.
Their blog has no feed. So they aren’t terribly bright. Still interesting.
Hypogamy: early signs American women may eventually accept “marrying down” the education track.
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2025/03/marrying-down-wife-education-hypogamy/682223/
Some of the examples are wealthy small businessmen with no degree. Which is NOT a real change.
But there are signs of hope. Women are just smarter (on average).
US military and cabinet using Signal on personal devices means NSA has to disclose vulnerabilities.
White Afrikaner refugees: “United States has deployed multiple teams to convert commercial office space in Pretoria … into ad hoc refugee centers…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/30/us/politics/trump-south-africa-white-afrikaners-refugee.html
About 8,000 requests so far.
OpenAI descripition of the the 40 image generation
https://openai.com/index/introducing-4o-image-generation/
It’s a marketing post but with some solid discussions and interesting examples.
“collapse followed quickly after the leaders of these polities inexplicably and suddenly abandoned principles and practices that had successfully underpinned state-building and social stability”
https://www.nationofchange.org/2024/09/04/political-collapse-lessons-from-fallen-empires/
“China’s Ming Dynasty, the South Asian Mughal Empire, the High Roman Empire, and Renaissance Venice … the loss of citizen confidence in the leadership can trigger an unexpected unwinding of the societal threads that underpin inclusive forms of cooperation and devotion to a governing system designed to realize common good”
This topic needs more research but the short paper reminds us great empires can collapse very quickly for no obvious reason. Civilization is not a very stable condition.
FDA vaccine scientist-administrator: RFK “wishes subservient confirmation of his misinformation and lies”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/03/28/rfk-jr-fda-vaccine-scientist-peter-marks/
The GOP won its war on science. They will be hated.
The Defiance of Coyotes.
https://www.bannedinyourstate.com/p/the-defiance-of-coyotes
Lovely writing – with the subtext of life beneath Musk. We have bold coyotes in our city. They demand respect. Even mid-day doing the territory rounds.
Don’t be a snowflake. Be the coyote.
The Vance quote that infuriates Trump: “I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/25/us/signal-leak-vance-trump.html
Trump does not like being reminded that he is cognitively limited. He knows Vance looks down on him. The hate is strong in them.
From Signal to Arendt to falsifiability.
https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/03/26/atlantic-releases-signal-thread
Arendt of course: “The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction (i.e., the reality of experience) and the distinction between true and false (i.e., the standards of thought) no longer exist.”
“Laurene Powell Jobs is a stalwart and brave publisher at a time when cowardice rules the day.”
https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/03/26/the-atlantic-has-an-owner-committed-to-the-cause
Good comment that Bezos would have blocked WaPo publication.
“excluding folders and volumes from Spotlight indexing … will exclude those apps from LaunchServices’ list”
https://eclecticlight.co/2025/03/27/controlling-launchservices-in-macos-sequoia/
macOS has too many weird dependencies.
“LaunchServices now tries to include all apps in accessible volumes and folders.”
I think this is pre-Mojave.
“Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools …”
https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/03/25/trump-has-surrounded-himself-with-idiots
RFK. Hegseth. Gabbard. Musk.
“Musk is incompetent and evil”
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/incompetent-or-evil-a-false-dichotomy
Musk sees the bigger picture. One where people are too small to see and mundane morality is a weakness.
“myelin levels increased but not all the way back to normal; two months later, myelin levels finally reached their pre-marathon baseline”
https://gizmodo.com/something-strange-happens-to-brains-during-a-marathon-2000580554
As also seen in animal studies — under extreme exercise brains feed off the lipids in myelin. We don’t know if this is good, fine, or not great.
“The CIA director posted an active undercover intelligence officer’s name in the group chat … “
https://www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/six-short-thoughts-on-the-most-insane-trump-story-of-all-time
Good list of observations.
Imagine all the stupid shit they do where they don’t give a journalist the scoop of a lifetime.
“Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, had texted me the war plan at 11:44 a.m”
Everyone has heard this, but I wanted to record for my records.
Evolving the Ability to Evolve Faster
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/evolving-ability-evolve
“the fundamental logic of natural selection is indifferent to level of organization or timescale, and provided that variation, reproduction, and heredity exist, selection can shape traits that are adaptive at levels beyond the individual”
Antivaxxer wealth: “Mercola as a “quack tycoon” since a news report in 2019 revealed his net worth to be north of $100 million”
Ally of JFK. There is *great* opportunity in scamming the vulnerable. I wonder if most of his victims are mostly MAGA.
Good comparison to the fall of Prasad. These people often believe. And they tend to fall deeper and deeper into delusion.
Ripping into Paul Weiss, first among cowards.
https://contrarian.substack.com/p/cowardice-and-capitulation-stain
No courage. No honor.
DeepSeek, in its heart, yearns for a free China.
https://toosimple.substack.com/p/deepseek-play
Much is censored, but it is easy to see at heart DeepSeek “wants” Xi gone.
Ask it about “China Spring”.
A tariff primer.
Trump is delusional. Beyond that I was impressed by how many tariffs are already in place.
Cambodia: “Huione International Pay operates with the efficiency of a legitimate, professional bank…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/23/world/asia/cambodia-money-laundering-huione.html
“One company department handles customer relations for scammers and other illicit actors.”
Cambodia is a world center for scams.
“age-specific prevalence of dementia in this country [has] steadily declined for 40 years”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/22/health/dementia-rates-elderly.html
For 85-89yo prevalence 23% in 1905 cohort, 1915 18%, 1935 11%, 1945 8%.
Reasonable explanations include BP meds, statins, decreased smoking, better air quality. I’d add fewer lifetime head injuries — Boxing was extremely popular from 1920s to 1940s and nobody wore helmets at work or play. I suspect the incidence will stabilize at around 8% though.