Link. Early results are promising. Likely years away from general use. There’s a lot of TBI out there and a lot of disability.
18 years at Google – the rise and fall.
Link. 2010 or so was when Google died.
“Morale is at an all-time low. If you talk to therapists in the bay area, they will tell you all their Google clients are unhappy with Google.”
Smith: The US economy is doing great but the public narrative is whacked. 🆓
Link. “U.S. social and political factors as the cause of the peculiar presence of negative narratives.”
The international comparison is useful.
“[US] economic growth since 2000 has been the worst in the last 90 years”
Link. Not a claim I often see but Lotterman has some interesting points.
“A growing number of Chinese have entered the United States this year through the Darién Gap”
Link. The middle-class go to Vancouver, but the relatively poor take the hard way. Xi is not the first emperor to destroy China.
US air traffic controllers crushed by workload.
Link. Highly paid but still can’t fill positions. A devastating plane crash is inevitable. Meanwhile GOP is really into Hunter Biden.
GOP war on government brings social security services closer to collapse.
Link. Pay levels are far too low. GSA job categories are obsolete. IT systems are obsolete. Disabled get overpayments for years then brutal clawback demands.
Biden on climate: “Inflation Reduction Act has kick-started a boom in wind, solar, battery and electric vehicle production that is reshaping the American economy and allowing one of the world’s largest polluters to say it is genuinely on a path to red
Link. Elections have consequences.
Bug: “encrypted sparse bundles should be avoided, as macOS is unable to change their passwords.”
Link. Been a bug for a while.
“I really don’t understand how anyone uses anything but an Apple TV box.”
Link. A few years ago the Apple TV seemed 3rd rate — but then the competition got shitty.
America can’t fight China in a conventional war.
Link. We can’t manufacture enough weaponry. This won’t change.
Things that are free – the classic Geek and Poke comic. (2010)
Link. Saw this used recently and bookmarking now because it’s perfect.
A year in AI – Ars has a list.
Link. Scroll to the list of events. Even the web didn’t move this quickly.
“one genuine advantage of cryptocurrencies: they are a great way to evade U.S. financial sanctions”
Link. The flip side of being able to send money internationally. Even bigger than ransomware and fentanyl.
“Native Americans and Alaska Natives, who were devastated by Covid, losing 6.2 years of life expectancy from 2019 to 2021”
Link. “In 2022, they regained 2.3 years of those years”. Other groups have regained 80% of lost LE as of 2022 as COVID recedes (for now).
Many would like to know why they did so poorly.
Peak oil? “The pipeline of non-OPEC projects alone appears sufficient to meet all global demand growth in the next few years at least”
Link. Demand less, OPEC considers production cuts.
Apple Cash Escheat: “Apple Cash could be counted as abandoned/unclaimed simply because you haven’t used them in a while”
Link. No notification
Text editing on mobile sucks: “Android and iOS share a common problem: they copied desktop text editing conventions, but without a menu bar or mouse”
Link. Author works at Google but I’ll vouch for the misery of the iOS experience.
Paper On AI Monosemanticity: “The AI gradually shifts to packing its concepts into tetrahedra (three neurons per four concepts) and triangles (two neurons per three concepts). When it reaches digons (one neuron per two concepts) it stops”
Link. Heroic effort to explain a very technical paper. Recommended for those who make confident statements about the near future.
“Anthropic’s interpretability team announced that they successfully dissected of one of the simulated AIs in its abstract hyperdimensional space.”
macOS OneDrive, ScanSnap PDFs and the “could not be opened” error in Monterey
Link. An old Favorite may resolve to what’s now a transient internal OneDrive store because files aren’t really files any more and I have a headache now.
US shoulder fired rockets cause brain damage to users.
Link. Similar to playing football — which is legal but a bad idea.
Several Hamas leaders leading attack on Israel are dead.
Link. I have seen the term “catastrophic success” applied to the Hamas attack.
Car theft in Minneapolis: a small number of teens and preteens, all well known to police, many arrested dozens of times.
Link. During brief detentions thefts drop. Rates still increasing though armed carjackings are down.
“until EA comes up with some solution other than “shut it all down”, the people developing AI are simply going to pray for the serenity to accept the things they cannot change.” 🆓
Link. Noah on OpenAI board coup. I find myself wanting to defend the EA board, I think Noah is right about the big picture.
The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero – example of credit card fraud. 🆓
Link. Eliminating fraud would eliminate too much legal activity.
Binance as Bond villain: “This continues Malta’s proud tradition of strategic ambiguity as to whether it is an EU country or rentable skin suit for money launderers” 🆓
Link. Lots of insider info. “Binance is going to be slowly ground into a very fine paste.”
“The World Health Organization has formally requested that China share detailed information about a recent increase in respiratory illnesses”
Link. Nobody trusts Xi, including his subjects.
Using Calibre and DeDRM Plug-In to remove Adobe DRM from Google Play .ascm ePUB files (Update 2023)
Link. This was first published in 2013 but I updated it for Monterey and later. It’s not a perfect description of the current process but it’s the best I’ve seen.
“buying and holding the entire market through low-cost index funds — is probably the best bet for most people.”
Link. I’ve read this for 40y and it worked for us. Though I have more SP500 than whole market. New study confirms ancient advice. But Vanguard is not what it was …
“Egypt has plenty of problems, sure, but it just doesn’t look like a hopeless basket case to me.”
Link. IOW: not Nigeria or Pakistan. Noah continues contrarian positivity.
“We call these Structured Prompts. They are like AI programs that let other people benefit from what you learned and explored.”
Link. … aaaanddd they are almost obsolete. But for a few weeks they were a thing.
“start with giving the AI an identity (you are an expert, friendly teacher who helps students with complex topics)…”
Another Finder memory leak in Sonoma (an old one)
Link. “Finder’s memory climb to over 1 GB. … closing it doesn’t free that memory up, even days afterwards. The only way to return the Finder’s memory use to anything approaching normal is to relaunch it from the Force Quit Applications dialog.”
“Ten-a-day was Hamas’s bottom line for the deal, because it thinks the Israelis will find it politically impossible to start the war up again in mid-December …”
Link. Dyer makes Hamas seem more calculating than I suspect it is.
Noahpinion year in review: “2023 was, in some sense, the year America discovered India…”
Link. A surprisingly good year for America.
Thanksgiving 2023 – Sean Carroll: “This year we give thanks for a feature of nature that is frequently misunderstood: quanta.”
Link. His list of past TG subjects is a good reading assignment
OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of Altman firing. 🆓
Link. “… Q* … could be a breakthrough in … autonomous systems that surpass humans in most economically valuable tasks.”
At present just does basic arithmetic and takes a lot of computation.
I wasn’t entirely honest when I “joked” about ChatGPT5. I like their AGI definition.
Douthat compares populist movements across democracies.
Link. As a conservative anti-trumper he plaintively hopes the left gets whackier and the right accepts democracy.
Personal AI: “Your primary GPT will continually improve as you chat, picking up on details and preferences to tailor its responses to you.”
Link. Mine tells me where to point the antenna it asked me to build.
Long-Term Care Insurance Failure.
Link. “Insurers counted on policy lapse rates — people giving up their policies or defaulting on payments — of about 4 percent annually. The actual lapse rate was closer to 1 percent.”
LTC needs to be a lot cheaper. Or just do a pandemic every five years.
Stellate ganglion block for post-COVID disorders of taste and smell.
Link. Weird. I’d wait for confirmation.
“Jimmy Carter knew almost immediately that he would marry the woman he had just gone to the movies with for their first date”
Link. She turned down his first proposal.
“Singapore recently instituted a system of mandatory long-term care insurance for those born in 1980 or later”
Link. Even in Singapore expenses fall on families. (Dementia care)
How to legally attack a hospital.🆓
Link. If used by combatants a hospital can be legally attacked — within guidelines.
Omicron biology. 🆓
Link. “In August, a variant called BA.2.86 emerged with a host of new mutations — likely the result, once again, of evolution taking place in an immunocompromised person.”
By “immunocompromised” they mean “probably HIV”. It’s easy to understand why the cautious term. People living with HIV can change evolutionary dynamics of a pandemic.
“[vaccine] development will slow down as governments stop paying for genetic sequencing of new variants”
“unable to discover what the limit for path length is in APFS; Internet rumour claims that could be as short as 1,024 UTF-8 characters, although other modern file systems have declared maxima of more than 32,000.”
Link. I wonder if that limit is Azure related; I think iCloud stores can be Azure.
When a new Mac fails .. Apple repair can be abysmal … and data recovery is not possible.
Link. Ric Ford gets hit. (Macintouch)
“its replacement motherboard was used, not new, showing unexpected and heavy SSD wear”
When Apple broke my iPhone they replaced it with a refurb with a screen issue.
The Atlantic has the best OpenAI summary.
Link. “In conversations between The Atlantic and 10 current and former employees at OpenAI, a picture emerged of a transformation at the company that created an unsustainable division among leadership” (Should be free article link)
PS. Do not care for “zealous doomers” as a way to describe people worried about what AI tech will bring.
“Starlink satellites are critical to deterring China because they are far more resistant to Chinese efforts to disable them than the Pentagon’s own communications satellites.”
Link. This seems like it should be a story rather than an aside.
Basel 3: “This rant is prompted by recent propaganda from Goldman Sachs alerting the world about threats small businesses face from proposed new capital adequacy standards for banks” 🆓
Link. Astroturf campaigns infuriate an economist.
“Within Israel, the rapid growth of the Haredi Jewish population was clearly altering the character of Israeli democracy”
Link. The Haredi focus on family size. I think they effectively limit the secular education of women; that’s the best way to achieve that goal.
I think a similar dynamic happened in Iraq but I have never found data. Too sensitive.
Demographics is not destiny but it’s powerful.