Anthropic: “Some of us think that A.G.I. — in the sense of systems that are genuinely as capable as a college-educated person — are maybe five to 10 years away.”

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Link. I used to think 2080. By which time I’d be long dead. I hope this turns out like autonomous vehicles or nuclear fusion; always 5y away.

Caveat: Anthropic has an effective altruism heritage.